外汇聚焦：欧元区债券抛售 2026年10月 综合 v2

关键论点

• 美债收益率上行与欧元区财政和政治风险上升（尤其法国）是欧元走弱的主因。
• 法国国债压力加剧碎片化担忧，法德利差走阔进一步压制欧元。
• 法国政府债务外资持有比例高，加大资本外流风险，或放大抛售。
• 基准情形为“勉强过关”，但利差走阔、ECB紧缩预期降温或TPI猜测升温都可能压低欧元/美元。

对应原文证据

1. • Our base case remains a "muddle-through" scenario, but further spread widening, reduced ECB tightening expectations, or building TPI speculation could push EUR/USD lower.
2. First, the Fed began raising rates in September for the first time since the US-Iran conflict began and signalled that it intends to deliver at least one further rate hike before the end of this year. · this year
3. On this occasion, USD gains have been constrained by the resilience of global growth, particularly in Asia and Europe, where economic activity has held up better than expected.