外汇聚焦 欧洲央行回顾 2026年9月 合并版 v2

关键论点

• 欧洲央行加息25个基点至2.50%，为中性区间上端，并给出鹰派预测修正。
• 自8月19日预测截止以来能源价格大幅上涨，使欧央行不利情景比基准情景更贴近现实。
• 能源价格上涨、经济活动有韧性及中期通胀更顽固，强化了进一步收紧的理由。
• MUFG现预计10月和12月各再加息25个基点，年底存款利率达3.00%。

对应原文证据

1. 1 FX Focus │10 September 2026 FX Focus ECB Review: Neutral no longer looks enough 10 September 2026 • Macro view: The ECB hiked the deposit rate by 25bp to 2.50%, as expected, taking policy to the upper end of its estimated neutral range. · September 2026
2. While retaining the standard meeting-by-meeting guidance, the ECB delivered a hawkish set of projection revisions and warned more forcefully that the Middle East conflict continues to generate inflation pressures.
3. With gas and oil prices having moved sharply higher since the 19 August projection cut- off date, the ECB’s adverse scenario already looks more relevant than the baseline.