综合 2026年9月25日

关键论点

• 2年期美债收益率21天跃升72个基点，为2023年3月初以来最大，当时类似走势先于美国地区银行业动荡。
• 固定收益已实现亏损加大传染风险：盈利头寸，尤其是AI相关股票和外汇套利，可能被平仓以锁定收益。
• 美元可能进一步走强，但利率波动的幅度预示风险资产面临危险。
• 若收益率维持高位或进一步上行，AI股票最易出现回调；纳斯达克仅小幅突破6月高点后即回落。

对应原文证据

1. The recent UST sell-off has been driven primarily by higher real yields and weak duration demand rather than inflation compensation.
2. News of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) broke a few days later followed by Signature Bank and the news prompted a huge turnaround in the rates market as investors positioned for the Fed having to cut rates.
3. We are not suggesting further banking trouble now but the 2023 events do highlight the scale of the recent move has consequences for risk takers and the likely losses that have been suffered raise the risks of consequences going forward. · 2023