合并版 2026年10月23日

关键论点

• 欧元走弱的主因是能源价格冲击以及法国财政与政治风险加剧。
• 能源价格处于欧洲央行不利与严重情景之间，预示整体通胀将高于4%。
• 法国债券收益率带来的非意愿收紧使欧洲央行对过度紧缩更谨慎，促使MUFG撤销下周加息预测。
• 当科技信用利差走阔与美债收益率下行同时出现时，美元相对欧元和瑞郎的下行风险更大。

对应原文证据

1. 1 23 October 2026 23 October 2026 No relief in sight for the EUR FX View: The EUR has continued to weaken over the past week, falling to fresh year-to-date lows against both GBP and JPY. · October 2026
2. In contrast, upcoming policy updates from the Fed and BoJ could strike a relatively more hawkish tone while leaving rates on hold, signalling that more work remains to address upside inflation risks.
3. We expect challenging financial market conditions to persist in the week ahead reflecting ongoing concerns over higher government bond yields, energy prices and the recent paring back of AI-related investment optimism.