亚洲外汇评论 · 边际上的变化

关键论点

• 印尼央行决策存在分歧，鉴于MSCI提议将其降为独立市场地位，加息仍有可能，结果对USD/IDR能否企稳至关重要。
• 亚洲科技货币（韩元、新台币、人民币）应跑赢印度卢比与印尼盾，但对该分化的信心已下降。
• 亚洲出口增长将在2027年回落，全球经济意外指数也在走低，但隐含增速仍属健康。
• 随着避险情形增多，做多美元、日元或离岸人民币兑高贝塔货币是合理选择。

对应原文证据

1. A Wall Street Journal report said Anthropic could spend US$750bn on additional computing power in the coming years, citing a draft prospectus, but with a net loss of US$81bn in the 1 st half of 2026. · 2026
2. CHART 1: ASIA EXPORTS GROWTH STARTING TO ROLL OVER, BUT OVERALL GROWTH RATES EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG Source: Bloomberg, MUFG GMR.
3. Meanwhile, global economic surprise indicators also show some signs they are starting to move lower although the good news is that inflation surprises remain contained for now.