亚洲外汇评论 · 区域外汇面临韧性美元与高企美债收益率

关键论点

• 美国通胀走软（PCE同比3.4%）在短端缓和了美联储紧缩预期，自周二以来2s10s曲线陡峭约9个基点，但12月加息仍被完全定价。
• 美元指数仍站稳101上方，美债收益率高企令亚洲货币承压。
• MUFG对印尼盾保持谨慎：通胀或升至3.3%同比，接近印尼央行目标上限，8月贸易顺差可能因油价上涨推高进口而转为逆差。
• MUFG对泰铢保持谨慎：油价上涨恶化贸易条件，旅游收入走软，增长疲弱，财政空间有限，且央行政策利率仅1.0%，在美债收益率高企下支撑有限。

对应原文证据

1. This leaves Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report as the next key test for the Fed outlook and US yields.
2. The official manufacturing PMI returned to expansion at 50.1, while non-manufacturing rose to 50.2 from 49.0.
3. South Korea’s August industrial production fell 4.8%mom, although the weakness was largely driven by a strike-related fall in auto production, suggesting caution in interpreting the headline decline as a broader deterioration in Korea’s manufacturing cycle.