亚洲外汇观察 · 印度央行（RBI）——加息只是时间问题？

关键论点

• 印度央行今日可能维持回购利率在5.25%，但暂停是暂时的。
• 油价上涨、天气风险及需求韧性使通胀压力持续至2027年。
• 预计12月和2月各加息25个基点，本轮总计风险为75个基点，少于市场定价。
• 美元兑日元位于158上方；日本央行正常化信号尚不足以推动日元持续上涨。

对应原文证据

1. 7 October 2026 Market Highlights Markets will be closely watching today’s RBI policy decision, with investors focused on how policymakers assess inflation risks against a backdrop of abundant INR liquidity and global risks including higher US yields. · October 2026
2. While we expect the RBI to leave the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%, recent developments have reinforced our view that the current pause is likely temporary.
3. Higher oil prices and weather-related risks have increased upside inflation pressures, while resilient domestic demand and still-abundant liquidity conditions should keep underlying price pressures elevated into 2027. · 2027