亚洲外汇评论 · 与亚洲科技挂钩的外汇或跑赢大盘

关键论点

• 亚洲货币相对其他货币更具韧性，受AI出口强劲及区域柴油供应压力较小支撑。
• MUFG看好科技相关的新台币与韩元，其次是小幅看好林吉特和新加坡元，预计主要货币对将继续分化。
• 欧洲政治与财政风险主导欧元前景，短期内卖出欧元兑新台币或韩元合理。
• 现有卖出美元/新台币交易改为卖出欧元/新台币以降低套息成本；印度卢比5年期NDOIS支付建议在印度央行会议前平仓。

对应原文证据

1. CHART 1: EUR HAS UNDERPERFORMED WITH HIGHER FISCAL AND POLITICAL RISKS DOMINATING MARKETS Source: Bloomberg, MUFG GMR estimates.
2. We have an existing trade idea to sell USD/TWD, and we now like switching to EUR as the funding currency instead in part to lower the cost of carry (sell EUR/TWD) (see Why US yields matter for Asia ).
3. We close out our existing idea of Paying INR 5y NDOIS (Entry 6.4767%, current spot 6.744%) ahead of RBI ’s policy meeting tomorrow (see Pay INR rates post RBI minutes ).