亚洲外汇展望季度报告 2026年10月2日 最终版 v2

关键论点

• 2026 年第四季度亚洲货币整体将小幅升值，但表现高度分化
• AI 驱动的出色表现支撑亚洲货币，尽管面临美元与能源逆风
• 韩国半导体回升主要由价格驱动，台湾则由销量驱动，均对货币构成支撑
• 剔除中国后，亚洲 2026 年第二季度 GDP 同比增长加速至 6.6%，受科技驱动的出口与投资提振

对应原文证据

1. Near-term USD resilience and elevated US yields remain headwinds, while the AI-led export cycle, external balances, energy exposure and domestic policies will drive relative performance. · near-term
2. Korea’s semiconductor upturn has been predominantly more price-driven, while Taiwan’s has been more volume-led, suggesting different transmission channels but similarly constructive currency implications.
3. We forecast USD/CNY declining to 6.65 by end- 2026 and 6.50 by Q3 2027. · Q3 2027