全球政府债券收益率触及数十年高位

关键论点

• 9月美债10年期收益率上行与曲线趋平几乎完全由美联储加息预期升温解释，摩根大通认为当前定价合理而非偏离基本面。
• 财政部回购（每次操作至少翻倍至40亿美元）及可能缩减长端拍卖预计仅有暂时效果，英日经验可鉴；若债务管理转向机会主义，反而可能推高期限溢价。
• 欧元区与英国中期收益率既反映政策收紧预期（欧洲央行升至2.75%，2027年一季度再加息一次），也反映AI生产率带动的更高中性利率预期及能源风险溢价。
• 收益率上行可能自我强化，推高政府、企业与消费者借贷成本、扩大赤字，并在越过拐点后压制股票估值。

对应原文证据

1. Recently, however, the Treasury Department has taken the initiative to intervene, announcing that it would at least double the maximum amount of long-dated U.S. government debt it can buy back from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation in an effort to tamp down bond yields.
2. Some market participants believe that Treasury could cut long-end auction sizes in an effort to reduce supply of Treasuries and thus potentially reduce long-end yields.
3. Morgan Global Research forecasts the ECB to raise rates once more this year to 2.75%, and then hike once more in the first quarter of 2027. · 2027