宏观 · 每周经济监测观点

关键论点

• 欧元区整体通胀接近峰值，但能源价格预计将在明年2月前维持两位数涨幅。
• 核心通胀仍受控，但天然气价格上涨将核心通胀预期峰值推升至明年春季的2.7%，且存在更持久风险。
• 美国9月就业数据不及预期，消费者价格平减指数修正后显示通胀图景有所缓和。
• 能源冲击的持续性可能为美联储和欧洲央行12月再次加息提供理由。

对应原文证据

1. The rise in core indices was decidedly more contained (by just one tenth, in line with expectations) : the HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco at 2.5%, and the measure excluding energy and fresh food at 2.2%.
2. We believe that this component is very close to its peaks (which we expect to be above 20% y/y in October-November), but that it is likely to remain in double digits until February of next year. · next year
3. However, the latter will have an impact, especially on processed foods, in the coming months, pushing food inflation above 2% in our estimates for the entire second half of 2027. · 2027