宏观 · 宏观快速反应 日本央行加息至 1.25%，并降温对连续稳步加息的预期

关键论点

• 7比2的投票显示两位高市任命的委员反对，高田与田村质疑潜在通胀评估，表明委员会并非一致鹰派。
• 声明和指引重复6月至7月的措辞，没有新的鹰派信号；唯一新增内容是将潜在通胀稳定在2%附近，属于措辞调整而非紧缩信号。
• 8月整体CPI与剔除能源和生鲜食品的指数均持稳于同比1.9%，核心核心指数意外降至1.7%，受政府措施拖累约0.6个百分点。
• 这些措施逐步退出应推动通胀在四季度升至2.7%、2027年初见顶3.5%，支持进一步但渐进的紧缩，到2027年底接近2.00%。

对应原文证据

1. The BoJ Hikes to 1.25% and Cools Expectations of a Steady Run of Rate Hikes The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% by a 7-2 vote, with the two members appointed by Prime Minister Takaichi dissenting.
2. Ueda described a new phase of monetary policy, moving from supporting underlying inflation to stabilising it at 2%, but avoided committing to a sequence of hikes, and markets read the message as less hawkish than expected.
3. We expect the next 25bp hike in January, with a move brought forward to December only in the event of a marked acceleration in the inflation measures excluding institutional factors.