外汇 · 外汇快评 大重整

关键论点

• 债券市场驱动汇市，美债收益率飙升令美元重获主导地位。
• 美债抛售由美联储加息预期的实际收益率重定价和通胀、量化紧缩及财政赤字推升的期限溢价共同驱动。
• 欧元因法国财政担忧、德国国债收益率飙升及欧洲央行评论而承压，尽管曾尝试反弹。
• 瑞郎是终极避险货币，欧元/瑞郎套利平仓信号显示避险情绪升温。

对应原文证据

1. Forex Flash Forex The information in this document is current as at 2 October 2026 (unless otherwise stated) See the Appendix for analyst accreditation and important notices The Great Realignment  The global foreign exchange market is undergoing a period of profound restructuring, driven by the most severe bond sell-off in decades. · October 2026
2.  The intensity of the current UST sell-off suggests that the rise in the term premium may be due to a sharp rise in inflation, greater uncertainty over the Fed’s moves, the shift from QE to QT, and the rise in the public deficit.
3.  Next week, the market will digest the US employment report, US Treasury auctions, a packed schedule of speeches by Federal Reserve officials, and the reopening of Chinese markets following the Golden Week holiday. · next week