固定收益 · 利率策略

关键论点

• 货币政策无法完全对冲能源驱动的通胀冲击，各国财政政策又受高债务和借贷成本上升制约，因此利差的政治风险正日益成为欧洲整体问题，而不仅限于各国国内。
• 主要欧元区发行人的r-g差趋于零，未来利差收窄将更多取决于可信的赤字削减路径，而非r-g差本身。
• 政治风险正向欧洲层面转移，2027年法国、意大利、西班牙选举周期以及反对永久债务共担或扩大欧盟预算的立场，可能推高利差，尤其是长端。
• 量化紧缩增加私人部门需吸收的债务（欧洲央行组合2026年底前到期约500亿欧元，2027年3100亿欧元），且财政一体化停滞压缩了利差收窄空间。

对应原文证据

1. Rising yields and fiscal risk The chart below shows the trend in the ‘r -g’ variable based on IMF forecasts and calculated as a 5 -year forward moving average (i.e. the 2027 figure is the average for the years 2027 –2031), so as to represent a medium -term scenario that is most likely to i nfluence market dynamics. · 2027
2. ‘r-g’ variable ( 5-year forward moving average based on IMF forecasts, %) Source: International Monetary Fund, Intesa Sanpaolo Germany maintains a moderately negative r -g ( -1.2 per cent in 2027), confirming a structurally sustainable debt trajectory despite rising public expenditure requirements and funding needs linked to defence and investment. · 2027
3. Consequently, the traditional distinction between French ‘fiscal’ risk and Italian ‘debt stock’ risk could become less clear -cut in the coming years, increasing the sensitivity of both spreads to sustainability issues as well as to the 2027 election s. · 2027