尽管情绪下滑，美国消费支出依然稳健

关键论点

• 8月零售销售强劲反弹，网络商店领涨，此前亚马逊Prime Day提前扰乱了6月和7月的消费节奏。
• 控制组增幅远超共识，表明消费广泛且具韧性，而非窄幅反弹。
• K型消费者叙事成立：高收入家庭凭借财富收益强劲消费，而中低收入家庭日益受到挤压。
• 实际家庭可支配收入已连续18个月持平，家庭因此减少储蓄，信用卡和汽车贷款拖欠率上升释放压力信号。

对应原文证据

1. The control group, which excludes volatile items such as gasoline, restaurants, building materials and autos, rose 1.4% MoM – much better than the 0.5% consensus forecast.
2. Internet sales bounced back, rising 2.6% MoM – Amazon's Prime Day was earlier than usual this year, which boosted June sales at the expense of July (-1.7% MoM) and we saw a subsequent recovery in August. · this year
3. Meanwhile, middle and lower income households are increasingly being squeezed, with the University of Michigan sentiment measure suggesting households are the most anxious they have been for 50 years!