美国消费者信心下滑，压力依旧

关键论点

• 10月消费者信心指数从48.1降至46.3，为历史第二低，当前状况分项跌至44.7的历史新低。
• 高油价、收入增长疲弱和就业安全感是主要拖累，73%-87%的受访者认为现在是购买大件商品、汽车或住房的坏时机。
• 消费与信心的关联已经断裂，因为收入前20%的家庭（年收入超15.5万美元）贡献约40%-60%的消费且资产负债表稳健。
• 只要股市维持，消费就能继续，但股市若出现回调，情况将迅速改变。

对应原文证据

1. 73% think it is a bad time to buy a major household appliance, 78% think it is a bad time to buy a vehicle and 87% think it is a bad time to buy a home.
2. High-income households are the key driver of spending behaviour, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggesting the top 20% of households by income (those making over $155k per year) are responsible for around 40% of all consumer spending, while Moody's Analytics suggest it could be as much as 60%.
3. The median American (reflected in the sentiment surveys) doesn't have the wealth gains to support their spending in an environment where real household disposable incomes are barely growing in a low-hire, low-fire economy – Federal Reserve data suggests the bottom 60% of households by income hold only 15% of US household wealth.