波兰的双速消费：耐用品强劲，必需品低迷

关键论点

• 波兰零售销售呈两极分化：耐用消费品强劲、必需品疲软，前者录得两位数增长，食品和燃料落后。
• 工资增长放缓和燃料价格上涨对消费者构成压力，但耐用消费品需求仍具韧性。
• 拥有储蓄的高收入家庭与预算更紧的低收入消费者之间支出模式的分化，可能是这一现象的原因之一。
• 投资以及预计三季度同比增速超过3%的私人消费，应能支撑GDP增速维持在3.5%左右。

对应原文证据

1. Consumers face slowing wage growth and higher transport costs, but fixed investment should keep buoyant growth in 2H26 A clear split has emerged between strong durable goods demand and subdued spending on essentials in Poland Dichotomy in retail sales categories Polish retail sales increased by 3.8% year-on-year in August (ING: 5.1%; consensus: 4.5%), following growth of 3.9% YoY in July.
2. We continue to expect private consumption growth to return to above 3% YoY in 3Q26, following growth of 2.8% YoY in 2Q26, although the consumer is no longer as strong a driver of the economy as in 2025. · 2025
3. Investment will remain an important engine of growth, with investment growth in 3Q26 potentially exceeding the 8.4% YoY recorded in the previous quarter.