经济学家与市场对决，胜者只有一个

关键论点

• 市场预计到明年此时欧洲央行和美联储各加息约三次，而ING预测各仅加息一次，并在2027年底和2028年适度降息。
• 市场定价对欧洲央行一直准确，但对英国央行则完全错误，后者尚未加息。
• 随着能源效应消退且通胀比官员担心的更温和，这场争论可能在2027年春季得到解决。
• 法国主导的债券收益率上升以及美国10年期收益率超过5%，可能替代约一次加息的效果。

对应原文证据

1. In his guide to the week ahead, James Smith argues that by next spring, calmer inflation and less hawkish central banks could force a long-overdue rethink in financial markets over the outlook for interest rates In the blue corner: economists.
2. Second, central banks believe the higher energy prices go, or the longer they stay high, the more likely we are to get second-round effects on inflation.
3. That makes sense: my eurozone colleagues reckon higher longer-term borrowing costs will have a similar impact on growth and inflation as one rate hike.