土耳其央行重启降息并释放更多宽松信号

关键论点

• 土耳其央行将一周回购利率下调100个基点至36%，利率走廊宽度维持450个基点不变。
• 在布伦特原油接近110美元的背景下，内需走弱与9月通胀改善（未经加工食品价格大幅回调）仍支持重启降息。
• 前瞻指引由谨慎的逐次会议评估转向强调后续举措的幅度与时点，暗示12月将再降息。
• ING预计政策利率年底降至35%，并预计实际利率维持高位，以抑制美元化并管理储备压力。

对应原文证据

1. The move, which was widely expected, reflects the central bank's assessment of softer economic activity and favourable September inflation data, despite Brent crude oil trading close to US$110 per barrel and lingering geopolitical risks in the Middle East.
2. In its statement, the CBT said it would continue to monitor the growth and inflation outlook.
3. When it comes to forward guidance, the central bank had previously emphasised that monetary policy decisions would be taken with a cautious, meeting-by-meeting approach focused on the inflation outlook.