罗马尼亚：单一引擎经济体

研报译文摘录

Snap | 7 September 2026 1 THINK Economic and financial analysis Snap | 7 September 2026 ROMANIA Why Romania is running as a one-engine economy Flat 2Q26 GDP confirms that investment is keeping the Romanian economy afloat, while the rest of the economy remains under pressure. We maintain our forecast for a 0.5% contraction in 2026, with risks still skewed to the downside Investment remains the Romanian economy’s only meaningful growth engine for now Romania’s statistics office confirmed that GDP stagnated in 2Q26 versus the previous quarter. On the unadjusted series, the economy contracted by 0.4% year-on-year, leaving GDP down 0.7% in the first half of the year. Following growth of just 0.9% in 2024 and 0.7% in 2025, the economy remains on course for its first annual contraction since 2020. Investment does the heavy lifting The expenditure breakdown reveals an increasingly unbalanced growth mix. Gross fixed capital formation increased by 16.5% year-on-year, contributing 4.1 percentage points to GDP growth and preventing a contraction. By contrast, household consumption fell by 3.1% in volume terms, subtracting 1.9 percentage points from growth. Net exports were a further drag, as import growth of 2.6% outpaced the 1.4% increase in exports. Inventories subtracted another 2.0 percentage points, possibly THINK 经济与金融分析 快评 | 7 年 2026 月 2 日，反映了需求低迷和信心疲弱背景下的谨慎去库存。

机构

荷兰国际集团智库

发布时间

2026/09/07

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上下文：此处为自动译文摘录，并非机构原话，也不是 Tlines 结论；请对照原始研报核验。