利率火花：财政困境扩大

关键论点

• 法国预算案未能提供持久缓解，10年期法国国债与德国国债利差扩大至近140个基点，测试150个基点。
• 传染已蔓延至其他高负债欧元区国家，意大利和希腊利差扩大幅度超过法国，短端尤为明显。
• 更广泛的避险情绪和利差扩大使欧洲央行未来12个月的加息预期从四次降至最多三次。
• 由于财政压力不再被视为仅仅是法国的问题，欧洲央行在边际上更可能干预债券市场。

对应原文证据

1. We had speculated it could provide temporary relief, as it marked an effort toward consolidation, but looking further ahead, spreads were more likely to test around 150bp.
2. The consensus sees eurozone core inflation rising from 2.4% to 2.5%, which can still be considered benign given elevated energy prices.