利率火花：时间不在法国这边

关键论点

• 10年期法国国债与德国国债利差曾短暂收窄至100个基点以下，但ING认为上行风险大于下行风险。
• 法国拟通过540亿欧元计划将赤字降至5%，可能面临强烈政治阻力。
• 今年预算之后，焦点将转向总统选举，随后可能举行立法选举及艰难的政府组建进程。
• 欧洲整体环境转弱，欧洲央行因聚焦通胀并考虑进一步紧缩，购债门槛较高。

对应原文证据

1. The hurdle for the ECB to engage in bond purchases might be higher in the current situation where the central bank is focused on inflation and eyeing further monetary policy tightening.
2. In government bond primary markets, both Germany and the UK will auction 5y bonds.
3. Italy mandated banks for a new 12y green bond, which should be Tuesday’s business.