利率火花：增长令人失望仍会构建看涨理由

关键论点

• 油价接近每桶100美元，正在推高欧元利率，尤其是短端利率。
• 2年期德国国债收益率自年初以来上升了90个基点，而10年期收益率上升了55个基点，其中仅30个基点归因于通胀预期。
• 即使没有更高的通胀预期，10年期德国国债收益率仍将高于3.1%，反映出强劲的增长和更高的期限溢价。
• 令人失望的增长可能引发对欧洲央行政策的鸽派重新定价，包括更低的中性利率。
• 欧元曲线当前定价的终端利率约为3%，远高于2025年的2%目标，若增长失望，长期利率有50-100个基点的下调空间。

对应原文证据

1. That also means disappointing economic performance can quickly trigger a material bullish move in rates Oil prices are pushing rates up again Energy and inflation dynamics still driving euro rates While US markets closed for the Labor Day holiday on Monday, pressure on EUR rates continued to build at the short end as geopolitical headlines pushed up oil prices.
2. Arguably a one-off inflation shock from oil should not have a lasting impact on the neutral rate.
3. If the eurozone economy does not deliver on the heightened expectations, a repricing of the ECB landing zone could easily shave off 50-100bp from longer rates.