波兰加息概率上升，但决策者并不急于行动

关键论点

• 9月通胀超出NBP目标2.5%±1个百分点的容忍区间，但行长预计10月将回到区间内。
• 能源占9月通胀的60%，向其他价格的传导有限，且无二轮效应迹象。
• 国内风险包括消费需求稳健、企业工资同比增长约6%、全球农产品价格上涨、财政政策扩张以及PPI强劲。
• 燃油消费税和增值税临时下调预计将持续至2026年底；目前认为11月无需加息，但未完全排除。

对应原文证据

1. The central bank appears willing to wait to raise rates In today's press conference, National Bank of Poland Governor Glapiński acknowledged higher inflation but seems willing to wait to raise interest rates During his October press conference, National Bank of Poland (NBP) Governor Adam Glapiński highlighted growing risks to the inflation outlook.
2. Global sources of inflation Explaining the rationale behind the October decision to leave interest rates unchanged, NBP Governor Adam Glapiński stressed that the global economy is facing an energy shock resulting from the conflict in the Middle East.
3. Local inflationary factors are in play In the governor's view, the inflation outlook is subject to greater uncertainty due to the geopolitical tensions.