菲律宾通胀之战远未结束

关键论点

• 9月上行情主要源于供给面，且集中于非大米食品，而非广泛的需求冲击。
• 食品与交通合计约占CPI篮子的50%，使菲律宾通胀对食品和燃料价格异常敏感。
• 厄尔尼诺影响尚未完全显现，可能在2026年底至2027年初更为明显，增加通胀更持久的风险。
• 全球油价向国内燃料价格的传导在菲律宾远强于印尼和印度，放大了二轮效应。

对应原文证据

1. Rice and transport inflation contributed around 10% each, suggesting that the latest upside surprise was largely the result of renewed supply-side pressures rather than a broad-based demand-driven inflation shock.
2. More notable, however, was the sharp rebound in non-rice food inflation in September.
3. The rebound points to a broadening of food price pressures beyond rice, with stronger inflation transmission to cereal and related food products.