10月欧洲央行速览：法国动荡不应促使政策转向偏鸽

关键论点

• 在考虑任何债券购买措施之前，对进一步紧缩采取更鸽派的措辞可能是欧洲央行抵御债券波动的第一道防线。
• 明确释放12月"可能"加息的信号将构成略偏鹰派的意外，但由于已定价超过20个基点，市场反应应可控。
• 在缺乏明确第二轮通胀风险的情况下意外加息25个基点，可能引发避险行情，扩大法国国债利差并压低10年期德国国债收益率。
• 欧元对法国利差变动的敏感度下降，相对短期公允价值低估1-1.5%，但近期风险偏向下行。

对应原文证据

1. We don’t think it has, and expect the ECB to leave the door open for a December hike, which should shield rates and the euro from a major adjustment.
2. As usual, we also look at three alternative scenarios to our baseline The ECB is expected to leave rates on hold this week at 2.5% This is our market preview of October's European Central Bank meeting; you can find our macro preview here. · this week
3. Signalling that a hike by year-end is “likely” would be a slightly hawkish surprise in our view, even if markets are pricing in 20bp.