挪威央行料将再次加息，决策悬念重重

关键论点

• 核心通胀连续三个月低于挪威央行预测，但整体通胀高于预测，使加息决定仍存悬念。
• 国内经济条件稳健，2027年工资增速预计达4.0%。
• 外部压力偏鹰，因美联储和欧洲央行均暗示年底前再次加息。
• 市场已定价16个基点，令预期落空的成本可能超过过早收紧。

对应原文证据

1. While core inflation has undershot projections, headline inflation remains above forecast and domestic conditions are still firm.
2. EUR/NOK may face more pressure before any recovery Norges Bank in Oslo Mixed inflation signals Consensus is evenly split on whether Norges Bank will hike interest rates again at the 24 September meeting.
3. We expect a 25bp hike to 4.50%, but understand why this is a close call.