匈牙利国家银行回顾：一次恰到好处的暂停决策

关键论点

• 维持利率不变是一项积极、深思熟虑的决定，得到上调的通胀展望和自2028年起的新通胀目标的支持。
• 暂停并不一定意味着宽松周期结束；若风险情绪改善，ING认为六个月内存在两到三次降息空间。
• 未来降息的最大制约因素是风险环境，尤其是能源价格和地缘政治升级。
• 下调通胀目标并暂停降息为外汇市场创造了积极环境，但全球因素很容易占据主导地位。

对应原文证据

1. Keeping rates unchanged is an active, considered decision, backed by an upwardly revised inflation outlook and a new inflation target from 2028. · 2028
2. We expect inflation to remain low and stay below the central bank’s inflation target (3%) for the rest of the year, although we anticipate some acceleration in the months ahead, mostly on fuel and services.
3. We forecast the base rate to reach 5.25% by the end of 2026, with a further reduction to 4.25–4.50% expected by the end of 2027. · year-end 2026