月度债券市场紧张局势加剧，或将拖累欧元区增长

关键论点

• 能源价格上涨、长期利率上升及主权债券紧张将拖累欧元区经济活动。
• 法国少数派政府可能援引宪法第49.3条通过预算，但紧张局势可能先升级。
• 债务高企成员国的债券利差因传染效应扩大，金融条件收紧，2027年财政紧缩压力上升。
• 二轮效应温和，通胀不会重演2022-23年的全面浪潮，明年平均通胀预计为2.5%。

对应原文证据

1. Inflation is still too high, pointing to another ECB rate hike, although quantitative tightening could be halted Higher energy and borrowing costs continue to weigh on the eurozone economic outlook October is the cruellest month October is budget season in Europe, when cash-strapped member states must show they can put their finances in order.
2. With presidential elections due in April and May 2027 and street protests mounting, few parties are willing to back austerity. · May 2027
3. We still expect the government to invoke Article 49.3 to pass the budget without parliamentary approval, but tensions may rise first.