极端高温与干旱考验匈牙利经济复苏，但增长势头依然稳固

关键论点

• 8月工业产出环比增长1.0%，超出预期，按工作日调整后同比增长8.7%，为2022年末以来最强。
• 此前锯齿状波动模式未再现，支持工业真正复苏，得益于商业信心回升和新制造产能。
• 8月零售销售量环比下降0.7%，多数品类实体店销售下降1-3%，但线上销售增长3%，消费者基本面仍有利。
• ING维持2026年工业增长3-4%和零售增长约4-5%的预测，但工业增长可能仍集中在少数行业。

对应原文证据

1. As a result, output in August was only 0.9% below the 2021 monthly average, in line with our expectations. · 2021
2. Industrial output was 3.4% higher in the first eight months of the year, meaning that our forecast of 3-4% growth in 2026 still looks comfortably achievable. · 2026
3. Retail sales hit as consumers stayed home in the extreme heat 2.4% Volume of retail sales (YoY, wda) ING estimate: 4.2% / Previous: 4.9% The heatwave and the associated energy crisis may not have disrupted industrial production, but Hungary’s retail sector proved far less resilient.