德国通胀因汽油价格上涨而接近3年高位

关键论点

• 德国9月整体通胀同比升至3.3%，接近三年高点，高于8月的2.9%。
• 核心通胀持平于2.4%，服务业通胀降至2.7%，表明通胀仍属能源价格现象。
• ING预计整体通胀将维持在3%至4%之间，至少到2027年初仍高于3%，可能到2027年底才降至2%以下。
• 欧洲央行12月预期加息将是保险性举措，但更多加息将增加经济不必要放缓的风险。

对应原文证据

1. While at face value these inflation numbers are a clear concern for the European Central Bank, the fact that core inflation remained unchanged at 2.4% YoY and services inflation even drifted lower to 2.7% YoY from 2.8% YoY in August shows that inflation currently remains an energy price phenomenon.
2. As long as core inflation remains subdued, some ECB members might question the need for further hikes.
3. Against this backdrop, headline inflation will remain above 3% at least until early 2027. · 2027