德国 ifo 指数 9 月 26

关键论点

• Ifo指数9月从8月的88.8升至89.9，连续第五个月上升，创一年多新高。
• 财政刺激正传导至实体经济，经济活动自持性增强，但连续五个月改善的确切原因尚不清楚。
• 上半年强劲表现支撑2022年以来最佳增长，预计今年GDP增速约1%。
• 周期性反弹不等于结构性复苏；已宣布改革主要针对公共财政可持续性，而非竞争力。

对应原文证据

1. The German government’s tax rebate on fuel also prevented private consumption from falling off a cliff, a factor that will have played no role in the third quarter but is returning as of 1 October.
2. Looking ahead, there are clear risks posed to the German outlook: the war in the Middle East, which it seems could be slowly turning into a forever war, oil prices remaining at elevated levels, as well as the likely upcoming shock of higher gas prices in the next heating season and renewed trade tensions.
3. While there are still clear downside risks to the short-term outlook, the strong first half of the year alone has prepared the economy for its best growth performance since 2022. · 2022