收益率曲线动态驱动美元走势

关键论点

• 收益率曲线趋陡利空美元，趋平利好美元。
• 美联储持鹰派立场且美国短端收益率超4%，支撑年底前美元走强。
• 美联储紧缩可能削弱贬值交易（黄金、比特币、瑞郎）。
• 日本干预难以奏效，因美联储紧缩在即；日央行需意外加息或出台新政。
• 美元走弱或推迟至2027年第二季度，届时美国通胀回落至2%，美联储可能转松。

对应原文证据

1. In light of a more hawkish Fed outlook, we now expect the dollar to stay stronger for longer Fed hawkishness and a flatter yield curve should help the dollar Fed hawkishness versus the debasement trade EUR/USD continues to bounce around in a broad 1.13-1.18 range – largely determined by US policy settings.
2. That is why we are dropping our year-end 2026 EUR/USD forecast to 1.16 from 1.18 and raising the USD/JPY profile to 160 from 158. · year-end 2026
3. A Fed hike and presumably a hawkish Fed stance into year-end will go some way towards dissuading investors from the debasement trade, which since 2025 has favoured the likes of the Swiss franc, gold and bitcoin at the expense of the dollar. · 2025