FX Daily：美元势不可挡

关键论点

• 8月美国PCE偏软未能动摇美联储紧缩预期；1个月期美元OIS一年期远期利率短暂回落5bp，但美盘收盘前已完全收复跌幅。
• 美国消费者支出保持稳健，ADP报告显示薪资增长或重新加速，支撑美联储鹰派立场，市场聚焦明日9月非农就业数据。
• 欧元/美元走弱主因美联储重新定价而非欧元自身疲软，但法国OAT与德国国债利差快速走阔至+127bp，可能增加欧元风险溢价并制约欧洲央行紧缩空间。
• 英国若向重新加入欧盟靠拢，外汇市场可能视为英镑利好，但明确进展尚需数年；约11月20日英欧峰会前后英镑或获买盘。

对应原文证据

1. Yesterday s softer-than-expected August US PCE inflation data barely put a dent in Fed tightening expectations, perhaps because US activity data continues to come in on the encouraging side.
2. EUR/USD is testing the lows of the year and looks vulnerable The dollar is testing the highs of the year and could go higher USD: Activity data backs up the Fed's hawkish position The DXY dollar index is testing the highs of the year at 101.80.
3. Firming up the view that the Fed will need to tighten again has been the activity side, where consumer spending data is holding up and there are even signs that payroll growth is accelerating again – this from the monthly ADP report released yesterday.