FX Daily：美元已失去避险王冠

关键论点

• 美元对人工智能叙事表现出脆弱性，避险需求由日元和瑞郎承接。
• 股市不安削弱了对美联储进一步紧缩的信心，但排除12月加息的门槛依然较高。
• 欧元对法国的敏感度已减弱，但若突破200个基点等新的痛点，可能迅速恢复。
• 若墨西哥央行12月不跟随加息，比索面临有记录以来最窄的墨西哥央行与美联储利差风险。

对应原文证据

1. A further widening in French spreads has not materially hit the euro, but that correlation may spike again soon.
2. 10yr Treasuries broke back below 5.0% for the first time in a month, showing ever-reduced sensitivity to higher oil prices.
3. Still, the bar for pricing out a December Fed hike appears fairly high, which should prevent larger USD corrections for the moment.