欧洲的推介书：为何贸易困境可能正是欧洲所需的推动力

关键论点

• 美国关税的宏观影响比担忧的要轻，2025年对GDP的影响在-0.1至+0.15个百分点之间。
• 中国产能过剩和竞争性定价对欧洲产业构成压力，但也通过廉价进口使消费者受益。
• 欧洲正通过与新西兰、智利、南方共同市场等达成贸易协议以及对华去风险策略来加强其贸易地位。
• 贸易压力可能推动欧洲转向更依赖国内需求的增长模式，利用其庞大的单一市场。

对应原文证据

1. Also, estimates show that, despite the intense focus on the trade war, Europe’s economy was barely impacted by the US tariffs in 2025. · 2025
2. The European Central Bank estimates that Chinese competition has kept prices low in Europe, with inflation of non-energy industrial goods almost 0.3 percentage points lower as a result.
3. The Recovery and Resilience fund is investing €650bn and is estimated to add almost €900bn to European GDP by 2030. · 2030