欧洲央行前瞻：如何在不引发更多市场动荡的情况下加息

关键论点

• 预计欧洲央行下周加息25个基点，得益于欧元区经济最近的韧性和油价高企。
• 总体通胀率仍高于3%且由能源驱动，因此9月之后进一步加息意义不大。
• 员工预测可能因统计修正和油价上涨而略有上调，但预计不会有重大变化。
• 近期债券收益率上升正在收紧金融条件，欧洲央行认为这有帮助，但必须避免过度或不均衡的紧缩。
• 如果债务可持续性担忧加剧，欧洲央行可能需要使用传导保护工具，但这不是当前的问题。
• 欧洲央行的反应函数表明这是'鸽派加息'，而非长期紧缩周期的开始。

对应原文证据

1. As long as inflation remains mainly energy-driven, hiking rates further beyond next week would not make a lot of sense and could harm the eurozone economy The European Central Bank looks set to hike rates by 25bp next Thursday The stage looks increasingly set for another rate hike at next week's European Central Bank meeting. · next week
2. With oil prices remaining elevated and the risk of a fresh gas price shock increasing, it will be hard for most ECB policymakers not to see a clear case for another rate hike.
3. Given that the cut-off date for the staff projections is normally some two weeks before the Governing Council meeting, the latest surge in bond yields as well as higher energy prices again will not have played a role in the forecasts.