荷兰经济保持增长步伐，但增长动力正在逐步转变

文章 | 3 年 2026 月 1 日 THINK 经济与金融分析

文章 | 3 年 2026 月 荷兰

荷兰经济保持增长步伐，但增长动力正在逐步转变

荷兰经济继续以可观的速度增长。尽管通胀和利率预期略有上升，使 2027 年的展望有所缓和，但基于出口需求持续强劲，对 2026 年的预期已有所改善

荷兰消费者信心长期低迷，但近几个月呈上升趋势

通胀上升略微削弱了 2027 年的增长展望

本月基线预测中能源价格上涨，略微削弱了荷兰经济在 2027 年的前景。我们将 2026 年和 2027 年的HICP通胀预期分别上调至 2.9% 和 2.7%，原因是能源、燃料和食品的价格走势不太乐观。通胀上升对 2026 年底和 2027 年上半年购买力的侵蚀程度超出最初的预期。再加上海湾地区持续的不确定性以及长期利率水平略有上升，这可能会抑制投资增长。

不过，我们预计明年经济将温和增长，GDP增速约为 1.3%。尽管由于开始实施紧缩措施以及家庭购买力下降，公共支出和家庭消费对增长的贡献可能会低于今年，但投资和出口预计将贡献更多。由于更强的投资增长将部分由国防设备进口推动，进口增长也有望上升。

THINK Economic and financial analysis

Article | 3 September 2026 2 to pick up.

Stronger exports push up the 2026 forecast

By contrast, the outlook for 2026 has improved on balance, with GDP growth now forecast at 1.4%. The improvement is mainly driven by stronger export expectations, as the Netherlands continues to benefit from the global AI-related investment cycle. This is reflected in more optimistic production expectations in industry. More specifically, semiconductor machinery manufacturer ASML has raised its turnover forecast from €36-40bn to €43-45bn. On a mechanical basis, and depending on the timing of deliveries, ASML’s higher turnover alone could raise the Dutch GDP growth forecast for 2026 by around 0.2-0.3 percentage points, because the domestic value-added content of these sales is significant.

Slightly stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP data also lifted the annual forecast, while persistently low consumer confidence has been trending upwards in recent months. This was only partially offset by our minor downward revision for the second half of the year, driven by higher inflation and interest rate expectations.

Stable growth masks a changing economic mix

On balance, the economic outlook has changed marginally. Despite the upward revision, GDP growth in 2026 is still expected to be slightly slower than in 2025, while growth in 2027 should proceed at a similar pace. That apparent stability masks a shift in composition: exports and investment are becoming more important growth drivers, while the contributions from household consumption and public spending are gradually diminishing.

That said, all expenditure categories are expected to contribute positively to economic growth in both years, apart from inventory investment. Steady as she goes!

Author

Marcel Klok Senior Economist, Netherlands marcel.klok@ing.com