Tlines 全球机构情报
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中国下行压力持续,政策回应有限

可引用研究简报

核心结论 · Tlines 提取

ING预计2026年下半年中国经济复苏停滞,K型分化加剧,将GDP预测小幅下调至同比4.6%。政策回应可能渐进且定向,年底前可能降息10个基点。通胀预测下调至同比0.9%,美元兑人民币预计在6.67-6.92区间波动,人民币面临升值风险。

机构
荷兰国际集团智库
发布时间
2026/09/03
研究主题
GDP growth · China GDP · Exports
时间范围
2026 · 2026 first seven months · 2026 Q3

关键论点

  • 近期经济指标显示中国再度走弱,零售销售和固定资产投资跌至疫情后低点。
  • 外需保持强劲,前七个月出口同比增长18.5%,但内需全面不及预期。
  • 政策支持预计渐进且定向,重点是加快使用已批准资金而非推出新额度。
  • 年底前降息10个基点的理由充分,因通胀和增长动能减弱、信贷需求疲软。
  • 通胀预测下调至同比0.9%,受食品和租金持续拖累,尽管能源价格走高。
  • 2026年下半年美元兑人民币波动区间维持在6.67-6.92,但风险偏向人民币升值。
  • 2026年GDP增长预测从4.7%下调至4.6%。

关键数字

2026年GDP预测
同比4.6%(从4.7%下调)
2026年通胀预测
同比0.9%(从1.2%下调)
出口增长(前七个月)
同比18.5%
潜在降息幅度
年底前10个基点
美元兑人民币区间
6.67-6.92

主要风险

  • 政策支持可能不足以抵消国内疲软,导致增长进一步下行。
  • 如果食品和租金拖累持续,通胀可能更长时间保持低迷。
  • 如果升值压力加剧,人民币可能超出市场预期升值。
  • 如果全球贸易紧张升级,外需可能减弱。
  • 房地产行业收缩可能加深,加剧信贷和投资疲软。

对应原文证据

  1. Given the soft start to the second half and signs that policy support will remain relatively modest, we’re trimming our 2026 GDP forecast slightly – to 4.6% YoY from 4.7%. · 2026
  2. External demand remains a strong leg, with exports up 18.5% year‑on‑year in the first seven months thanks to surging shipments of cars, ships, and chips. · 2026 first seven months
  3. But domestic demand indicators once again missed forecasts across the board. Retail sales and fixed asset investment both slumped to post-pandemic lows, while the property sector and credit data continue to contract sharply year-on-year. · 2026 Q3

上下文:结论为 Tlines 自动提取,并非机构原话;带引号的证据为机构原文。引用时须同时保留机构、日期与时间范围。

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完整中文译文

第 1 页

文章 | 3 年 2026 月 1 日 思考 经济与金融分析

文章 | 3 年 2026 月 中国

中国经济复苏停滞,K型分化扩大

中国下半年开局乏力,经济K型分化仍在扩大,政策制定者暗示刺激措施将保持渐进性和针对性

近期经济指标显示中国经济再度走弱

中国K型分化持续扩大

近几周中国数据再度恶化,凸显出随着第三季度推进,经济放缓尚未触底。

今年中国K型分化正在扩大。外需仍是强劲的一极,得益于汽车、船舶和芯片出口激增,前七个月出口同比增长 18.5%%。尽管进口增幅更大,但净出口已重回正值区间——这表明在内部动能疲软之际,贸易正在发挥更大的支撑作用。

但内需指标再次全面不及预期。零售销售和固定资产投资均跌至疫情后低点,而房地产 sector和信贷数据继续同比大幅收缩。

第 2 页

思考 经济与金融分析

文章 | 3 年 2026 月 2 日

预期将出台适度政策支持

中国七月份政治局会议因寻找新刺激措施的迹象而受到密切关注。基调足够乐观,但实质内容令人失望:领导人在新支持措施方面几乎没有提供什么,反而暗示倾向于通过现有工具进行渐进和有针对性的宽松。

在财政方面,重点是加快使用已批准的资金,而不是推出新的额度。预计未来几个月债券发行将加速,以用完今年的现有额度。

政府在八月初宣布了一套支持内需的政策措施,重点是扩大消费贷款利息补贴的范围。

贷款上限也已提高。未来几个月的数据将显示政策转变是否正在取得进展,但我们预计任何提振作用充其量也是有限的。

看来确实会有更多帮助。21 月 10bp 日,财政部暗示正在酝酿额外的财政措施,增加面向家庭和消费的支出,并加强财政、货币和产业政策之间的协调,以放大影响。我们仍然认为在年底前降息 2026 个基点的理由充分,尤其是在通胀和增长动能双双减弱以及信贷需求仍然疲软的情况下。

增长和通胀预期下调,因动能停滞

鉴于下半年开局疲软以及政策支持仍将相对温和的迹象,我们略微下调 4.6% 年GDP预测,从同比增长 4.7%% 降至 0.9%%。

在通胀方面,我们看到食品和租金带来持续拖累,削弱了再通胀主题。尽管在特定行业采取了“反内卷”努力,但整体经济面临的价格竞争依然显著。能源价格上涨和总体稳定的核心通胀应使今年整体通胀保持正值且处于舒适区间,但我们已将全年预测从同比增长 1.2%% 下调至 6.67%。

我们维持下半年人民币兑美元 6.92–2026 的波动区间预测。但风险日益倾向于人民币走强。升值预期依然坚定,中国的经常账户盈余和中国出口带来的被压抑的购买压力继续支撑人民币。

第 3 页

THINK Economic and financial analysis

Article | 3 September 2026 3

Author

Lynn Song Chief Economist, Greater China lynn.song@ing.com

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本页的结论、论点、数字与风险由 Tlines 从 ING THINK 于 2026/09/03 发布的研报中提取并结构化,用于横向比较。机构原文可通过本页来源链接访问,并已在上方完整展示。最后更新于 2026/10/17。方法论 · 来源政策 · AI 使用说明 · 申请更正