捷克通胀开始攀升至顶部

关键论点

• 9月CPI同比2.5%，高于市场预期0.1个百分点，受燃料和管制能源价格推动，核心通胀约为3.1%。
• 商品通胀同比从0.2%跃升至1.2%，反映布伦特油价、成品油价格上涨及克朗走弱；预计10月汇率传导效应将更明显。
• 食品价格目前温和，但未加工食品小幅上涨预示拐点；ING视其为霍尔木兹冲突带来的初步第二轮效应。
• 11月加息概率80%，这是向更高均衡利率的再平衡，而非真正加息周期，因产出缺口为负；12月再加息概率30%。

对应原文证据

1. A hike in November seems increasingly likely, as rates adjust to a new equilibrium Higher regulated energy prices in September is starting to feed into inflation Second-round effects start to materialise Czech headline inflation increased to 2.5% year-on-year in September, while the price level remained unchanged from the previous month.
2. Both readings came in 0.1ppt above the market consensus, yet in line with our forecast.
3. For sure, September’s rising Brent Crude prices and refined products took its toll, while the weakening koruna went in the same direction.