英国就业市场降温，令多次加息必要性存疑

关键论点

• 8月私营部门就业人数减少3.4万，同比降0.8%，消费服务业裁员年化降幅超3%。
• 2.9%（剔除构成效应后3.3%）的疲弱工资增速，根据英国央行自身分析，与2%通胀目标相符。
• 英国就业市场远较乌克兰冲击时期疲软，使能源价格上涨引发严重二轮通胀效应的可能性降低。
• ING预计本周以6比3投票维持利率不变，不会出现集体鹰派转向，但若能源价格持续高企，不能排除加息可能。

对应原文证据

1. Wage growth across the private sector is consistent with a medium-term inflation target of 2%, judging by the Bank of England’s own analysis earlier this year. · this year
2. A lot will depend on the government’s decision on next April’s National Living Wage rise, due with the October budget, though it’s unlikely that it will materially outstrip this year’s 4.1% increase for over 21s. · this year
3. In short, the fact that the UK jobs market is far, far cooler than it was when the Ukraine shock hit four years ago, means we’re much less likely to see severe second-round effects on inflation from higher energy prices.