捷克国家银行回顾：加息在即

关键论点

• 捷克央行一致将利率维持在3.75%，但将11月会议框定为维持利率或加息之间的选择，住房、核心通胀、信贷、财政政策和工资均构成通胀上行风险。
• ING基线情景现包含11月加息一次，概率60%，维持不变概率40%，取决于受管制价格调整以及中东和乌克兰局势的发展。
• 能源价格主导通胀前景：布伦特近期高于100美元/桶后到2027年中回落至80美元上方，2027年整体通胀均值3.3%；若布伦特高于90美元/桶持续至2028年底，整体通胀近4%、核心通胀3.1%。
• 捷克央行偏好正实际利率；若加息一次，实际利率到2027年中仍接近零，若央行转鹰应会使曲线趋平并支撑克朗，预计EUR/CZK在24.300–24.350区间。

对应原文证据

1. Our inflation forecast supports a rate hike in November, particularly under our scenario of elevated oil prices The CNB kept rates on hold at the September meeting but hinted that rate hikes could be coming Slightly hawkish tone with firm conviction The Czech National Bank left the policy rate unchanged at 3.75% in a unanimous decision.
2. That said, we are ready to unwind the call should signals on regulated price adjustments in January suggest a much milder outcome than we expect and/or the conflict in the Middle East or Ukraine de-escalate substantially, implying a tangible and lasting decline in oil and natural gas prices.
3. So, unless the expected increase in inflation at the turn of the year is decisively viewed as a temporary upsurge, driven solely by energy prices with few second-round effects, we think the case for a rate hike will prevail.