印度央行收紧政策，但并非鹰派立场

关键论点

• 货币政策委员会一致同意将回购利率上调25个基点至5.50%，并转向校准式紧缩，未来政策选择仅限于加息或按兵不动。
• 此为谨慎紧缩而非激进鹰派：印度央行并不急于收紧流动性，且保持数据依赖。
• 基准情形为未来六个月再加息50个基点至6%的终端利率，前提是油价、厄尔尼诺食品冲击或卢比贬值不出现重大意外。
• 再加息50个基点将使实际回购利率升至约50个基点，仍低于印度央行约1%的合意水平。

对应原文证据

1. The MPC emphasised that future policy choices would be limited to either a rate hike or a pause, depending on evolving economic conditions and the inflation outlook.
2. The pace and extent of further tightening will hinge on growth and inflation dynamics, particularly the trajectory of underlying inflation, the broadening of price pressures, the risk of second-round effects from supply shocks, and the strength of demand conditions.
3. Reflecting a resilient growth outlook, the RBI revised up its GDP growth forecast to 7.1% YoY from 6.7%, while also nudging its inflation forecast higher to 5.2% YoY from 5.1%.