暂时缓解，而非复苏：欧盟化工生产商

关键论点

• 中东和亚洲供应减弱暂时提振了欧盟化工产量，但海湾运输恢复后这一提振消退。
• 结构性衰退持续：欧盟产量较2022年初下降24%，2022至2026年产能下降7%，全球产能过剩依旧。
• 西班牙因能源成本较低、阿尔及利亚天然气管道、消费品化学品比重较高及欧盟资助的可再生能源而表现较好。
• 为扭转衰退，生产商需加快脱碳，并依赖欧盟政策支持，包括碳泄漏保护和激励措施。

对应原文证据

1. But renewed import competition will cloud the outlook once Gulf oil and gas supplies to Asia recover.
2. By June, EU chemical production was 0.5% lower than a year earlier and remained around 24% below early-2022 levels. · 2022
3. Although the switch from oil to coal offers a partial alternative, this is expected to increase pressure on Asian chemical production and exports again, which will provide some relief to European producers.