E87：花旗TMT大会洞察：AI的现实世界清算与超越

关键论点

• AI讨论已从需求规模转向变现路径，包括开源与闭源模型之争。
• 软件板块预期中的大幅跑输并未兑现，吸引买家回流；半导体交易则高度依赖前沿模型公司的支出。
• 开源路由与高效前沿模型降低单位token成本，可能触发杰文斯悖论，用量增长足以支撑收入。
• 供应链、基础设施与电力瓶颈依然存在；该周期被定性为三至五年、甚至十年。

对应原文证据

1. We are recording right at the close of the 2026 Citi Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference where cutting-edge technology companies and innovators throughout the globe provided the latest on emerging trends, new technologies and future advancements. · 2026
2. Semis, the question was, “Is it a pullback that people should be buying?” And software: “Can the recovery continue?” I think it's interesting: Over the last couple of days, what became clear on the semis front was that investors remain cautiously selective.
3. And we've seen both sides of it with the software recovery here over the last three months being fueled by the declines that you've seen in semis.