EcoFlash · 欧元区韧性犹存，美国动能强劲

关键论点

• 欧元区韧性总体得到确认，但第三季度整体数据受波动较大的爱尔兰数据提振；基本增长约为环比0.2%。
• 德国复苏连续第四个季度延续，而意大利停滞，法国疲弱在很大程度上反映暂时性的航空航天冲击。
• 美国增长几乎不受能源冲击影响，人工智能相关投资和进口推动经济活动，但消费由储蓄率下降支撑。
• 法国巴黎银行预计法国第四季度增长反弹至环比0.3%，2026年为0.3%，2027年为0.8%。

对应原文证据

1. The Q3 data reinforce our forecast of 1.1% growth this year, which could even be slightly exceeded, as German and Spanish momentum shows no sign of fading. · this year
2. In France, the negative surprise ( -0.1% q/q against a consensus of +0.1% q/q) stems from a new one - off factor (the sharp fall in aerospace output caused by delays in input deliveries) and masks an encouraging rebound in household consumption.
3. Eurozone: The resilience of growth isconfirmed Eurozone GDP grew by 0.4% q/q in Q3 according to Eurostat's preliminary flash estimate, above both the consensus and our Nowcast (0.3%).