Scotiabank Economics · 09/02/2026
Bank of Canada Fires A Hawkish Warning Shot · GLOBAL ECONOMICS
Official source ↗Citable research brief
One-sentence conclusion
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% but adopted a hawkish tone, removing language that the current rate is appropriate and warning of increased upside risks to inflation. This has led markets to price in 75-100 bps of hikes by mid-2027, with Scotiabank forecasting at least 75 bps of hikes starting in Q4. The Canadian dollar appreciated and the 2-year GoC yield rose.
- Institution
- Scotiabank Economics
- Published
- 09/02/2026
- Time horizon
- immediate · short-term · medium-term · intraday · ongoing · Q2 2026 · current
Key numbers: Policy rate 2.25%; Market pricing for October hike 10 bps; Market pricing for December hike 22 bps; Markets pricing tightening by next summer 75-100 bps; 2-year GoC yield change +8 bps; Canadian dollar appreciation over half a cent
Main risks: If inflation does not remain elevated, the BoC may not hike as aggressively as expected.; Escalation of trade tensions could weigh on growth and offset the need for hikes.; A de-escalation in the Middle East could lead to lower oil prices and reduce inflation pressure.; Markets pricing may be too aggressive, leading to a correction if the BoC does not deliver.
Conditions / invalidation: If upside risks to inflation continue to materialize.; If the Middle East conflict persists.; If high oil prices persist.
Context: this is Tlines' automated structure of a public institutional report, not the institution's wording. Scope and date above travel with the conclusion.
Verify at the original source ↗The report
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Publisher disclaimer
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AI analysis
AI-generated from the report above · not a translation and not the institution's wording · verify against the official source
Key arguments
- The BoC removed the phrase 'the current policy rate remains appropriate' from its statement.
- The BoC warned that upside risks to inflation have increased, citing the Middle East conflict and high energy prices.
- Governor Macklem indicated that October's meeting is 'live' and that decisions will be guided by the new inflation forecast.
- Scotiabank Economics maintains its forecast of at least 75bps of rate hikes starting Q4, ahead of market expectations.
- Markets now price 75-100bps of tightening by next summer, with October pricing 10bps of a hike and December 22bps.
Risks
- If inflation does not remain elevated, the BoC may not hike as aggressively as expected.
- Escalation of trade tensions could weigh on growth and offset the need for hikes.
- A de-escalation in the Middle East could lead to lower oil prices and reduce inflation pressure.
- Markets pricing may be too aggressive, leading to a correction if the BoC does not deliver.