Intesa Sanpaolo · 09/04/2026
Forex · Forex Flash The yen dominates, the dollar falters
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AI analysis
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Key arguments
- BOJ is accelerating rate hikes with high probability of September hike and terminal rate at 2.20%.
- Fed is split 50/50 on a rate hike, decision could hinge on August CPI.
- ECB likely to hike 25bp in September then pause.
- BoE under pressure to raise Bank Rate to 4%.
- Yen is the best performer, USD/JPY dropped sharply.
- Dollar weakened, DXY fell to 98.91.
- Euro range-bound ahead of ECB meeting.
- Pound and Canadian dollar benefit from USD weakness.
Risks
- US August CPI could trigger Fed rate hike if inflation accelerates.
- Hedge fund positioning in Treasuries creates instability risk.
- Energy price shocks could fuel inflation and alter central bank paths.
- Geopolitical tensions (US-Iran) could impact markets.
- Fiscal concerns in UK under Burnham government could pressure gilt yields.