II Institutional Intelligence
Commerzbank · 09/04/2026

How far will the ECB raise rates?

Official source ↗
Complete Research
Complete English original

The ECB is expected to raise its key interest rates next week.

The ECB will raise interest rates next week, ...

The ECB is expected to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time next week, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50 percent. Even representatives of the dovish camp on the ECB Governing Council have expressed views along these lines. According to Primož Dolenc, governor of the Slovenian central bank, the case for a rate hike is currently strong, especially since the “inflation situation is not resolving itself.” Olli Rehn, governor of the Finnish central bank, considers market expectations to be “understandable.” In light of these clear signals from the ECB Governing Council, the futures markets have fully priced in this rate hike, and nearly all economists surveyed by Bloomberg also expect a rate hike.

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AI analysis
AI-generated from the report above · not a translation and not the institution's wording · verify against the official source
Key arguments
  • The ECB is expected to raise key interest rates by 25 basis points next week, bringing the deposit rate to 2.50%.
  • Dovish Governing Council members like Primož Dolenc and Olli Rehn support the hike, citing unresolved inflation.
  • Futures markets have fully priced in the rate hike, and most Bloomberg economists also expect a hike.
Risks
  • If inflation does not moderate as expected, the ECB may need to raise rates further.
  • A hawkish shift could slow economic growth in the euro area.