Intesa Sanpaolo · 09/03/2026
Macro · Macro Rapid Response A September ECB rate rise looks a ll b ut certain
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AI analysis
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Key arguments
- ECB is expected to raise rates by 25bps in September, bringing deposit rate to 2.50%.
- Inflation remains above target with risks linked to persistence of energy shock.
- ECB will maintain data-driven, meeting-by-meeting approach without forward guidance.
- July minutes indicate further rate rise would be necessary barring significant improvement in inflation outlook.
- Energy market normalization is now expected to be partial, with oil above $80 in H1 2027 and European gas above €40 next year.
- Baseline scenario sees no significant pass-through to core prices, allowing September rise to be the last.
- Uncertainty warrants caution; a third move to 2.75% cannot be ruled out if adverse scenarios materialize.
Risks
- A significant deterioration in the energy market outlook in 2027 could trigger additional rate hikes.
- A sudden acceleration in pass-through of energy prices to core prices could force a more aggressive ECB.
- Structural breaks in monetary policy rules make parameter estimates unreliable, leading to potential policy misjudgments.
- The duration of the Gulf crisis remains uncertain, keeping energy prices elevated for longer.